On Thursday, October 9, 2025, Anjali Mehta, senior analyst at GoodReturns reported that gold prices in India surged to historic highs, with 24‑carat bullion crossing ₹12,415 per gram. The data, also cited by The Indian Express, showed a parallel rise in 22‑carat and 18‑carat rates, while Times Now News recorded a slightly higher 24‑carat figure of ₹12,430 per gram in Delhi. City‑level rates were uniform, with Chennai posting the top 24‑carat price of ₹12,437 per gram. The rally coincided with growing demand ahead of Karva Chauth 2025, a major fasting festival for married women, and was amplified by worries of a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The price jump can be boiled down to two converging forces. First, the spectre of a U.S. federal shutdown revived gold’s safe‑haven appeal. When Congress stalls on the debt ceiling, investors worldwide scramble for assets that aren’t tied to any single currency, and metal is the go‑to choice.
Second, the domestic festive calendar was heating up. Karva Chauth, scheduled for October 22, traditionally triggers a 25‑30 % spike in jewelry purchases, according to historic data from the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI). Retailers reported that orders for gold ornaments were already booking up weeks in advance, pushing demand for 22‑carat and 18‑carat slabs used in craftsmanship.
When you convert the gram figures to a 10‑gram bar, Chennai’s price translates to ₹124,150, a number that echoed across the other metros. The uniformity signals a nationally‑linked pricing mechanism, likely driven by the same wholesale market in Surat that supplies most Indian jewelers.
On the same day, the U.S. Treasury hinted that a shutdown could begin as early as October 12 if Congress failed to approve a short‑term funding bill. The news sent the dollar slipping against the rupee, with the INR gaining roughly 0.3 % against the USD in intra‑day trading. A weaker rupee makes imported gold pricier, adding another layer of upward pressure.
Internationally, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) recorded spot gold at $4,013.87 per troy ounce, a 0.47 % climb from the previous session. The gold‑to‑silver ratio settled at 82.24, indicating that investors were favoring gold over silver as the primary hedge.
Karva Chauth isn’t the only driver. The Diwali season, which kicks off in late October, traditionally adds another 20‑25 % boost to jewelry sales. FICCI’s last‑year report showed that during the five‑day Diwali window, gold consumption jumped by ₹48 billion compared to the same period in the previous year.
Retail footfall, however, painted a paradox. While online sales surged, brick‑and‑mortar stores in Delhi and Mumbai reported a 12 % dip in walk‑ins, as consumers hesitated to part with cash‑heavy purchases amid price volatility. Many turned to staggered payment plans or pledged their existing gold ornaments for loans.
"We’re seeing a classic dual‑shock scenario," said Anjali Mehta, senior analyst at GoodReturns. "Global macro‑risk fuels the safe‑haven demand, while the domestic festive calendar adds a solid, time‑bound buying curve. If the U.S. shutdown materialises, we could see gold breach the ₹13,000 per gram mark before the end of the year."
Other market watchers echo the sentiment. Rajiv Sharma, a veteran trader at Mumbai’s Karvy Bulls, warned that “if the RBI decides to intervene to curb rupee depreciation, we could see a short‑term correction, but the long‑term uptrend is unlikely to reverse before Diwali.”
GoodReturns’ October 22 update confirmed the upward trajectory, with 24‑carat gold reaching ₹13,057 per gram. The rally marked a five‑day consecutive gain, the longest streak since the post‑COVID recovery period of 2021.
According to data compiled by Exchange‑Rates.org, the average gold price in 2025 sits at ₹283,629 per ounce, a 60.33 % increase from the January low of ₹224,549. The projected peak for October 20, 2025, is ₹384,197 per ounce, underscoring a steep upward arc that outpaces the 2019‑2020 bull run.
Silver, often the side‑kick to gold, also surged. A kilogram of the white metal fetched ₹161,000, up ₹1,000 from the previous day, marking a four‑day rally of roughly ₹6,000 per kilogram. The parallel rise hints at broader investor appetite for precious metals as a hedge against inflation and currency risk.
The immediate horizon hinges on two variables: the outcome of the U.S. debt‑ceiling negotiations and the progression of Indian festive demand. If Congress approves a short‑term funding measure, the gold‑safe‑haven premium may ease slightly, but the festive buying wave will likely sustain elevated prices through early November.
Analysts advise consumers to lock in rates early, especially for purchases tied to Karva Chauth, as waiting until the last minute could mean paying a premium of up to ₹500 per gram. Meanwhile, investors eyeing gold as an asset class are recommended to diversify with gold‑linked ETFs, which offer price exposure without the storage hassles.
A shutdown typically weakens the dollar, making gold more expensive in rupee terms. Historical patterns show a 0.3‑0.5 % rupee depreciation after such events, which can lift Indian gold rates by roughly ₹200‑₹300 per gram.
These lower purities are the raw material for jewellery. When 24‑carat bullion climbs, manufacturers pass on the cost to wholesalers, who in turn adjust the 22‑carat and 18‑carat rates to maintain margins.
Karva Chauth drives a surge in buying jewellery for gifting. FICCI estimates a 25‑30 % increase in gold consumption during the week leading up to the festival, pushing both retail and wholesale prices upward.
With the festive season looming and global uncertainties persisting, many experts suggest locking in rates early. Waiting could mean paying a premium of ₹400‑₹600 per gram if the rally continues.
Silver typically mirrors gold’s movement but with greater volatility. The recent 1.77 % rise in spot silver reflects broader investor appetite for precious metals as a hedge, though gold remains the preferred safe‑haven during fiscal turbulence.
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